A complete guide to accurate weather forecasting

How do meteorologists predict the weather?

Weather forecasting is the process of combining scientific insights, data, and technology to assess future atmospheric conditions. Meteorologists observe, study, and predict changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, and more.

In today’s data-rich environment, meteorologists combine real-time observations, advanced modeling techniques, and expert interpretation to produce accurate forecasts. But how do weather forecasters predict the weather, and how are weather predictions made?

How a weather forecast is made

Fundamentally, the process begins with gathering data and using that information to feed forecasting models. These simulations help anticipate everything from temperature changes to the path of major storms.

At The Weather Company, we combine human meteorological expertise with advanced AI to create forecasting capabilities that neither could achieve alone. Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists works in real-time with our AI systems, providing critical oversight and adding invaluable human intelligence to the process – without slowing things down.

Essentially, how to predict the weather is four-pronged approach:

1. Observe
What is the weather like now? We ingest data from a collection of instruments to observe conditions on the surface and in the upper atmosphere, including:

• Weather radar: Detects precipitation and storm intensity.
• Weather balloons: Measure upper-atmosphere conditions.
• Barometers and thermometers: Monitor pressure and temperature.
• Satellites: Observe cloud cover and storm systems globally.
• Weather stations: Collect ground-level conditions.
• IoT sensors: Deliver hyperlocal temperature, humidity, and pressure data.

2. Model
How will the weather evolve? Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP) models take current atmospheric conditions as a starting point to project a forecast. There are many well-known models such as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and The Weather Company’s proprietary, hyperlocal Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF).

Instead of relying on a single model, our AI-driven, multi-model ensemble, WxMix, synthesizes and optimizes 100+ models, so that we’re always leveraging the best available science.

3. Produce
We translate model outputs into consumable insights like daily highs/lows, severe weather alerts, and turbulence maps.

4. Deliver
Forecasts are delivered instantly through apps and websites such as The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, and Storm Radar, APIs featuring real-time and historical data, aviation dashboards, broadcast media systems and displays, and mission planning and simulation tools.

Our strength lies in modeling, productization, and delivery – applying advanced modeling techniques, AI integration, and human oversight to produce timely, accurate forecasts.

The role of AI in accurate weather forecasting

AI is rapidly transforming weather forecasting, significantly enhancing its accuracy and speed. This rapid processing allows for more frequent forecast updates, which is crucial for quickly evolving weather events like severe thunderstorms. In particular, new Deep Learning based AI models (DL-NWP) are showing promise when it comes to improving the accuracy, granularity, and cost effectiveness of traditional models, while also showing enhanced ability to depict the range and likelihood of potential weather outcomes, enabling better decision-making.

Long before “AI” became a buzzword, The Weather Company was harnessing the power of sophisticated algorithms, statistical models, and data-driven computational methods to improve weather forecasting and deliver actionable insights to consumers and businesses globally.

Today, we’re working with partners like NVIDIA to actively develop new deep learning approaches and incorporate the latest AI models into our forecasting processes to continuously improve forecast precision.

Who has the most accurate weather forecast?

According to the latest ForecastWatch study, The Weather Company is nearly 4x more likely to be the most accurate weather forecaster than the next closest competitor.⁶

Building on our commitment to proven forecast accuracy, we continue to innovate and challenge ourselves to do even better.

• Consistent #1 finishes: The most 1st place finishes each year since ForecastWatch measurement began.^{7 8}
• Regional accuracy dominance: The most accurate forecast provider the most often in 7 out of 8 regions.⁹
• Leading in longer-range forecasts: Nearly 6x more likely to be the most accurate when measuring a 14-day time horizon.¹⁰

Benefits of accurate weather forecasting

Weather affects nearly every sector — from supply chains and staffing to safety and customer engagement. It impacts an estimated $3 trillion of the U.S. economy annually and influences 30% of global GDP.¹¹ Even a 1ºC temperature shift can cause a 1.2% swing in consumer spending.¹²

Simply, better accuracy means better decisions. Accurate weather forecasting can deliver measurable value across industries:

Aviation: For airlines, accurate forecasts are critical for planning routes, minimizing delays, and improving safety. Weather is responsible for nearly 75% of flight delays,¹³ highlighting just how important accurate, proactive forecasting is for keeping flights on schedule and passengers safe. Turbulence prediction, wind shear detection, and runway condition forecasts help flight crews make informed decisions that protect passengers and optimize fuel use.

Advertising: Weather impacts consumer behavior, and accurate forecasts help brands align messaging with what people are experiencing in the moment. The Weather Company’s advertising solutions use real-time weather and location insights to power smarter campaign delivery – reaching consumers when and where it matters most. These insights help brands anticipate shifts in mindset and purchase intent, such as promoting allergy relief ahead of high pollen days or iced coffee on a warmer-than-usual afternoon. With tools like Weather Targeting,  advertisers can dynamically tailor messaging by region, season, or even zip code – improving performance while maintaining privacy-forward practices..

Media: Reliable forecasts built into broadcast media solutions keep viewers informed and engaged. Localized, timely forecasts build trust, improve viewer retention, and support higher ad revenue. Broadcasters can promote their accuracy, backed by The Weather Company, as a differentiator in competitive media markets.

Government & defense: From storm response to mission planning, government and defense agencies rely on accurate forecasts for operational readiness. Whether preparing for hurricanes or managing logistics during winter storms, accurate data helps leaders act decisively and allocate resources efficiently.

Given the ever-increasing reliance on precise weather insights, what’s next for forecasting?

What is the future of forecasting?

Forecasting is evolving to become faster, more personalized, and more precise. Key innovations include:

• Probabilistic forecasting: Instead of offering a single deterministic outcome, probabilistic forecasts show a range of possible scenarios and the likelihood of each one. This helps decision-makers understand risk and uncertainty more clearly – for example, while a deterministic forecast might indicate an expected snowfall amount of 5 inches in the next 24 hours, a probabilistic forecast reveals there’s also a chance of as little as 1 inch or as many as 10 inches of snowfall in that time, which might prompt a user to change plans or prepare alternatives accordingly.
• AI-powered modeling: Artificial intelligence and machine learning are playing a growing role in improving forecast accuracy. These systems can rapidly process massive volumes of historical and real-time data, identify subtle patterns, and provide a range of outcomes known as ensemble modeling that supports probabilistic forecasting and gives a more complete picture of weather’s nuance and variability. AI is particularly useful for refining forecasts in dynamic or hard-to-model environments.
• Street-level resolution: Forecasts are becoming hyperlocal, not just city-wide, but down to neighborhoods and even individual streets. This level of detail supports everything from route planning in logistics to micro-targeted alerts for consumers.

Precision, preparedness, and progress

Ultimately, accurate weather forecasting isn’t just about knowing if it will rain tomorrow; it’s about making smarter, more informed decisions that protect lives, livelihoods, and economies. The synergy of human meteorological insight and advanced AI is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. Moving forward, our unwavering commitment to precision will continue to empower individuals and businesses to thrive in an ever-changing world.