How do meteorologists predict the weather?

Weather forecasting is the process of combining scientific insights, data, and technology to assess future atmospheric conditions. Meteorologists observe, study, and predict changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, and more.

In today’s data-rich environment, meteorologists combine real-time observations, advanced modeling techniques, and expert interpretation to produce accurate forecasts. But how do weather forecasters predict the weather, and how are weather predictions made?

How a weather forecast is made

The process of creating a weather forecast begins with gathering data and using that information to feed forecasting models. These simulations help anticipate everything from temperature changes to the path of major storms, including tornadoes, dangerous winds, and severe precipitation.

At The Weather Company, our Human-Over-The-Loop (HOTL) model combines human meteorological expertise with advanced AI to create forecasting capabilities that neither could achieve on its own. Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists works in real-time with our AI systems, providing critical oversight and adding invaluable human intelligence to the process without slowing things down.

Weather forecasting is a four-pronged approach:

1. Observe: What the weather is like now

We ingest data from a collection of instruments to observe conditions on the surface and in the upper atmosphere, including:

• Weather radar: Detects precipitation and storm intensity.
• Weather balloons: Measure upper-atmosphere conditions.
• Barometers and thermometers: Monitor pressure and temperature.
• Satellites: Observe cloud cover and storm systems globally.
• Weather stations: Collect ground-level conditions.
• IoT sensors: Deliver hyperlocal temperature, humidity, and pressure data.

2. Model: How the weather evolves

Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP) models take current atmospheric conditions as a starting point to project a forecast. There are many well-known models, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Global Forecast System (GFS), and The Weather Company’s proprietary, hyperlocal Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF^®).

Instead of relying on a single model, our AI-driven, multi-model ensemble, WxMix, synthesizes and optimizes over 100 models, ensuring that we always leverage the best available science.

3. Produce: Combining models with meteorologist expertise

We combine advanced modeling with human meteorological expertise to translate model outputs into actionable insights, such as daily highs/lows, severe weather alerts, and turbulence maps.

4. Deliver: Share forecasts across channels

Forecasts are delivered instantly across apps and websites, such as The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, and Storm Radar, which feature APIs that provide real-time and historical data, aviation dashboards, broadcast media systems, and displays, as well as mission planning tools.

The role of AI in accurate weather forecasting

AI is rapidly transforming weather forecasting, significantly enhancing accuracy and speed. This rapid processing enables more frequent forecast updates, which is crucial for quickly evolving weather events, such as severe thunderstorms. In particular, new deep learning-based AI models (DL-NWP) are showing promise in improving the accuracy, granularity, and cost-effectiveness of traditional models while also demonstrating an enhanced ability to depict the range and likelihood of potential weather outcomes.

Long before “AI” became a buzzword, The Weather Company was harnessing the power of sophisticated algorithms, statistical models, and data-driven computational methods to improve weather forecasting and deliver actionable insights to consumers and businesses globally.

Today, we’re working with partners like NVIDIA to actively develop new deep learning approaches and incorporate the latest AI models into our forecasting processes to continuously improve forecast precision.

What is the future of forecasting?

Forecasting is evolving to become faster, more personalized, and more precise. Key innovations include:

• Probabilistic forecasting: Instead of offering a single deterministic outcome, probabilistic forecasts show a range of possible scenarios and the likelihood of each one. This helps decision-makers understand risk and uncertainty more clearly. For example, while a deterministic forecast might indicate an expected snowfall amount of 5 inches in the next 24 hours, a probabilistic forecast reveals there’s also a chance of as little as 1 inch or as many as 10 inches of snowfall in that time, which might prompt a user to change plans or prepare alternatives accordingly.
• AI-powered modeling: Artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly playing a role in enhancing forecast accuracy. These systems can rapidly process massive volumes of historical and real-time data, identify subtle patterns, and provide a range of outcomes known as ensemble modeling, which supports probabilistic forecasting and gives a more complete picture of the weather’s nuances and variability. AI is particularly useful for refining forecasts in dynamic or hard-to-model environments.
• Street-level resolution: Forecasts are becoming hyper-local, not just citywide but down to neighborhoods and even individual streets. This level of detail supports everything from route planning in logistics to micro-targeted alerts for consumers.

Seeing the forecast others miss. The Weather Company’s AI-powered super-resolution technology transforms standard weather model data into hyper-local wind forecasts 10x more detailed.

Precision, preparedness, and progress

Ultimately, accurate weather forecasting isn’t just about knowing if it will rain tomorrow; it’s about making smarter, more informed decisions that protect lives, livelihoods, and economies. The synergy of human meteorological insight and advanced AI is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. Moving forward, our unwavering commitment to precision will continue to empower individuals and businesses to thrive in an ever-changing world.

Key takeaways

• Predictive weather intelligence is becoming a critical part of modern airport and airline ground operations.
• Real-time lightning alerting and synchronized situational awareness help ground operations teams maintain safety while reducing unnecessary ramp closures.
• Unified operational visibility across mobile crews, duty managers, and network operations centers supports faster, more confident decision-making during weather disruptions.
• AI-driven insights and network-level weather visibility help aviation leaders anticipate operational impacts before disruptions escalate.
• Maverick Ground Ops™ combines high-fidelity alerting, predictive intelligence, and aviation forecasting expertise to help airports and airlines improve operational resilience.

A summer thunderstorm is building 20 miles from the airport. Ramp crews are monitoring lightning alerts. Duty managers are juggling gate changes. Airside operations and FBO teams are tracking incoming traffic to manage capacity and ground service equipment windows. In moments like these, every minute matters.

For airport and airline ground operations leaders, weather has always been part of the job. But today’s operational environment demands more than reactive monitoring. Teams need synchronized visibility, faster situational awareness, and predictive insights that help them act before disruptions escalate.

Introducing Maverick Ground Ops™: a modernized, situational awareness solution built to help airlines and airports move from fragmented weather workflows to unified, predictive operations.

The risks of siloed airside visibility

When legacy systems lack real-time synchronization, even the slightest disconnect can create significant operational friction. That fragmentation slows response times and creates avoidable confusion during irregular operations (IROPS). The operations center may see one set of weather alerts while ramp agents receive different information on mobile devices – or no information at all.

Lightning is one of the clearest examples of this hazard. 

Ground operations managers face constant pressure to protect crews while minimizing unnecessary ramp closures. Close the ramp too late, and safety risks rise. Keep it closed too long, and delays cascade through the network, impacting turn times, gate availability, crew schedules, and passenger experience.

The challenge is rarely a lack of weather data. It’s a lack of contextual, operationally relevant intelligence delivered consistently across teams. Operating from disconnected systems means vital weather alerts can slip through the cracks. This airside fragmentation forces teams to work reactively, creating avoidable confusion during critical severe weather events and delaying the precise coordination needed to protect passengers and personnel.

One operational picture from the ops center to the ramp

Maverick Ground Ops was designed as an enterprise-grade SaaS platform with mirrored web and mobile functionality, helping everyone from duty managers to ramp leads access the same operational intelligence in real time.

That shared visibility becomes especially important during rapidly evolving weather events. A network coordinator may need a high-level risk outlook view of weather impacts across multiple hubs. Meanwhile, a station manager may need localized lightning proximity alerts and predictive insights into surface movement disruptions. Both perspectives matter. Both need to stay synchronized.

The shift from reactive monitoring to predictive operations

Ground operations leaders don’t just need to know what the weather is doing right now. True efficiency requires visibility into what weather conditions will mean for the operation 15, 30, or 60 minutes ahead.

Maverick Ground Ops was designed around that operational reality, converting raw predictive forecasting into clear operational intelligence. For ground operations teams, that translates into more confidence around cross-team decisions like:

• When lightning threats are approaching the airfield.
• When the trailing strike window has elapsed to safely declare an all-clear and reopen the ramp.
• Whether incoming convection could reduce arrival and departure rates.
• How FBOs can safely optimize fueling and staging timelines during volatile weather.
• Which hubs and stations across the network require immediate operational prioritization.

Inside the platform: Tools built for synchronized decision-making

To turn raw weather data into unified, actionable team intelligence, Maverick Ground Ops embeds key capabilities directly into the daily workflow:

• High-fidelity lightning alerts: Real-time proximity warnings delivered via visual banners, audio signals, and push notifications synched across web and mobile devices.
• Configurable safety range rings: Dynamic, color-shifting visual rings (Caution and Warning) configured globally using ICAO codes to eliminate localized setup errors.
• Global Surface Movement (GSM) mapping: Clear, interactive visual tracking of airside assets paired with critical surface-level context with the Smart NOTAMs overlay. .
• AI-driven predictive modeling: Built-in Terminal Airspace Convection Risk (TrACR) and Airport Arrival Rate (AAR) insights to project surface and capacity impacts up to an hour ahead.
• Risk outlook dashboard: A color-coded, network-wide weather risk summary, so you know where to position aircraft and resources across hubs and stations for faster recovery.

Interactive mapping visualizes cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground temporal strikes.

Precision matters when every minute impacts throughput

Operational resilience depends on timing. A ramp closure that extends even 10 or 15 minutes longer than necessary can ripple across an entire hub operation. Aircraft utilization, baggage movement, gate sequencing, and staffing efficiency all begin to compress. That’s why forecast accuracy and update frequency matter so much in aviation environments.

Human expertise and rapid-refresh data layers

Our forecasting approach combines proprietary modeling, AI-enhanced forecasting systems, and human expertise to deliver continuous weather intelligence. Designed for the pace of airside operations – where conditions can shift in minutes – Maverick Ground Ops is supported by high-resolution GRAF technology, Forecasts on Demand (FOD), and rapid-refresh updates across precipitation, wind, and other critical parameters. For lightning specifically, alerts can reach operators within 12–30 seconds of a strike, giving ramp teams the reaction time they need to make safe, confident decisions.

With Forecasts on Demand (FOD), users can quickly anticipate operational impacts.

Weather intelligence is becoming a competitive operational advantage

As aviation operations become more interconnected, weather intelligence is no longer just a safety function. It’s becoming a core operational performance driver. Backed by nearly 30 years of specialized aviation forecasting expertise, Maverick Ground Ops is built to deliver exactly that. By combining high-fidelity alerting, AI-driven insights, and mirrored web-and-mobile SaaS capabilities, the tool helps airlines, airports, and FBO footprints move faster, coordinate better, and protect their personnel with total confidence.

Airlines, airports, and FBO footprints that can better anticipate weather impacts may gain a distinct advantage in:

• Safeguarding personnel: Empowering safety officers and ground managers with real-time, context-specific thresholds to protect crews without manual guesswork.
• Maximizing throughput: Keeping aircraft, baggage, and fueling operations moving efficiently by confidently tightening operational windows.
• Reducing unnecessary ramp closures: Utilizing high-fidelity alerting to minimize cascading network delays and eliminate the cost of over-alerting.
• Optimizing turn times: Synchronizing web-to-mobile workflows so ramp leads and station managers stay completely aligned.
• Unified network resilience: Giving global network coordinators and executive leadership a single risk outlook view to prioritize resources across an entire footprint in seconds.

The ability to move from reactive response to predictive coordination may increasingly separate resilient operations from disrupted ones. That’s why platforms like Maverick Ground Ops are focused not only on visibility but operational foresight. Because if you can see operational impacts developing before they escalate, your teams have more opportunities to act decisively.

The future of ground operations is connected and predictive

The mission hasn’t changed — maximizing airside throughput with a proactive safety posture remains paramount. The difference is that now, modern aviation operations teams have the synchronized airside awareness and predictive network visibility to outpace disruptive weather before it impacts the network.

View the Maverick Ground Ops virtual launch recording to see how predictive weather intelligence is helping aviation operations move faster, coordinate better, and maintain safety across the network.

(Episode 5)

Episode overview: Navigating convection with proactive data and expertise

Thunderstorms do more than block runways; they create airspace chaos by closing arrival and departure fixes and inflating fuel costs. This episode examines how The Weather Company’s embedded experts work within airline operations centers to turn “Irregular Operations” (IROPS) into a manageable strategic playbook.

We explore why confidence is the most important metric a meteorologist can provide when an airline is deciding whether to be aggressive with flight planning or prepare for diversions. By looking beyond the TAF and into the recovery phase, our experts explain how identifying the right alternates and predicting exact gate-reopening times protects the operational integrity of the airline.

(Episode 4)

Episode overview: Precision avoidance and routing for volcanic hazards

Volcanic ash is one of the few weather events that demands total avoidance, but it doesn’t have to mean total disruption. This episode explores the sophisticated technology and forecaster expertise that has turned volcanic events from unpredictable crises into manageable operational playbooks.

Our experts break down the difference between standard government SIGMETs and the granular data layers used by The Weather Company’s meteorologists to help airlines “thread the needle” around volcanic plumes. We examine the critical role of summit-height wind modeling and real-time webcam streams in protecting terminal operations. Discover how the industry has moved from the panic of the 2010 E15 eruption to a future of proactive, 24-hour strategic planning.

The confidence to make critical flight decisions doesn’t come from technology alone. It comes from rigorous verification that validates forecasts, refines models, and holds every meteorologist accountable. Not only does verification help our products provide an invaluable service to our clients, it validates the essential human value-add in areas where technology cannot yet replicate expert intuition. Verification is how we prove our forecasts work. It’s also how our experts make them better.

How verification drives continuous improvement

Forecast verification systematically compares predictions to observed conditions. At The Weather Company, it serves three purposes:

1. Improving forecast accuracy
2. Promoting transparency about performance
3. Embedding reliability into decision tools

Our automated verification system evaluates parameters against observed weather data recorded by stations at airports worldwide. This helps unlock consistent, objective performance tracking in near real-time. It also frees forecasters from the burden of manual verification, while delivering nuanced insights that drive continuous improvement.

Verification often reveals that a model might be technically accurate in its intensity prediction but poorly timed. By identifying these discrepancies, a human meteorologist can recognize when an actual storm is developing quicker or slower than the model suggests. This allows the forecaster to refine the forecast window in real-time, minimizing costly downtime and optimizing operational efficiency for the airline.

Verification is about creating a feedback loop that meaningfully improves aviation forecasts over time.

The technology behind the trust

The Weather Company is partnering with NVIDIA to train AI models on 20 years of proprietary aviation weather data — developing convective-scale forecast ensembles ideal for aviation decision making. Verification will validate these innovations, helping AI advancements translate into greater operational confidence.

We’ve also implemented the JEDI data assimilation system, which cycles forecasts back into the model rather than starting each hour from scratch and allows timely incorporation of diverse observations. This creates a more realistic, continuous view of the starting state of the atmosphere that powers our Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF^®).

Where verification delivers results

This rigorous verification process delivers measurable improvements across our product suite, including:

Future radar: The latest version of our forecast radar is 2.5 times better at predicting where heavy precipitation will occur during the critical next two hours — giving operations teams earlier warning when conditions are expected to deteriorate.

Gate Convective Forecasts (GCF): This risk product now provides increasingly accurate predictions of thunderstorm coverage, timing, and intensity across terminal airspaces. By validating GCF against actual convective events and sharing those results back with our forecasters, we’ve refined the forecast process to better distinguish between scattered activity and widespread operational disruption.

Fog risk forecasts: Advancements have evolved rapidly through automated verification, providing immediate performance feedback that helped forecasters identify and eliminate bias before full deployment. Each new product undergoes the same accountability loop: forecast, verify, refine, repeat.

Beyond hit or miss: Partial credit matters

Traditional verification relies on binary thinking. For flight operations, this misses what actually matters — was the forecast useful for decision making? And airlines generally communicate risk on a spectrum from “no risk” to “operationally disruptive.” So, when operations see high risk, they hold departures and reroute aircraft.

Here’s the problem: Meteorologists may forecast high convective risk, but moderately impactful convection occurs instead. Traditional verification calls this a “false alarm.” Yet operationally, the forecast was useful— you held departures, rerouted arrivals, and avoided delays. This is why The Weather Company developed a Partial Credit Critical Success Index (PC-CSI) — to capture decision-grade accuracy and reward operational value over exact binary matches.

High-confidence risk assessment

One analysis identified that when The Weather Company forecasts high convective risk, impactful weather occurs approximately 80% of the time — the certainty needed to confidently trigger proactive flight delays or reroutes. This accuracy results from fostering forecaster accountability through continuous feedback.

Closing the feedback loop

Verification data only matters if it drives action. Lead meteorologists receive monthly performance summaries analyzing accuracy across airports and weather scenarios. They identify improvement opportunities and share findings with their forecasting teams — enabling collaborative learning and year-over-year performance gains.

Weather intelligence that moves aircraft

Just as verification can help to address forecast biases in weather prediction, it also validates how AI translates weather into aviation decisions. The same rigorous process enables AI models to correctly link atmospheric conditions to operational impacts.

We aren’t talking about generic weather forecasts. Our verification process validates that AI models accurately translate weather patterns into actionable insights. The Weather Company trains these weather impact models on historical weather data and real operational outcomes, then tests their performance through continuous verification. The result is a suite of predictive tools designed to answer the specific questions flight operations teams face daily:

TrACR (terminal airspace convective risk): AI-driven forecasts visualize thunderstorm risks in the departure and arrival gates around airports up to 7 hours in advance with 30-minute intervals, helping airlines optimize traffic and reduce delays.

Airport-specific capacity predictions: Forecasts limits on arrival and departure rates, giving clear visibility into when demand will outstrip capacity — before it happens.

Runway configuration predictions: Enable optimized route adjustments in advance of ATC clearance.

Ground de-icing insights: Allow dispatchers to proactively plan for icing conditions.

Achieving forecast “consensus”

Our forecasters leverage WxMix^®, The Weather Company’s proprietary multi-model ensemble, which analyzes over 100 global weather models and intelligently combines them to create a consensus forecast that is more accurate than any of the inputs. Verification validates that the engine delivers on its promise.

Accuracy that earns trust

The Weather Company is the world’s most accurate forecaster — nearly 4x more likely to be the most accurate than the next closest competitor.¹ That accuracy is built on cutting-edge AI, rigorous verification, and human oversight working together to deliver critical aviation insights.

The Weather Company delivers more than accurate weather data — we deliver the confidence to stay ahead of the storm. With FAA-compliant EWINS meteorologists blending aviation and meteorological expertise with innovative forecast technology, our Weather Forecast Services deliver real-time weather analysis and insights you can trust — globally, 24/7. When stakes are high, you need more than data, you need weather intelligence you can act on with confidence.

The November 2025 eruption of Hayli Gubbi in Ethiopia served as a wake-up call for the aviation industry. An ancient volcano with no recorded history of activity suddenly sent an ash plume 50,000 feet into the atmosphere, directly into one of the world’s most active subtropical jet streams.

For flight operations, the challenge wasn’t just the ash — it was the data. While government-issued SIGMETs (Significant Meteorological Information) shuttered massive swaths of airspace, The Weather Company provided a more surgical approach.

The Hayli Gubbi event: From quiet to 50,000 feet

On November 23, 2025, at approximately 08:22Z, Hayli Gubbi erupted. Because the volcano had no confirmed historical eruptions, it wasn’t on every operator’s immediate radar.

The timing was particularly difficult. A strong subtropical jet core was positioned directly over Ethiopia, with winds exceeding 100 knots. This acted as a conveyor belt, rapidly transporting high-level ash toward the Arabian Sea and India. By 19:45Z, three distinct ash layers were identified, with the highest reaching FL500 (50,000 feet) along the Yemen border.

The problem with “blanket” SIGMETs

When a major event like Hayli Gubbi occurs, the default response for many government agencies is to issue broad SIGMETs. During this event, we saw government advisories cover entire FIRs over India and Bangladesh, extending from the flight ceiling down to the surface.

For a Director of Flight Operations, these blanket closures are an operational nightmare. They lead to:

• Massive fuel burn due to long-range diversions.
• Widespread schedule disruptions across hubs like New Delhi.
• Increased pressure on flight ops teams to find viable routes in congested, restricted airspace.

A more surgical approach to Enroute Hazards

TWC SIGMETs clearly begin to offer more precision as compared to Government SIGMETs being issued over India and Bangladesh.

The Weather Company’s approach during the Hayli Gubbi eruption focused on high-frequency updates and particulate differentiation.

As the plume moved toward Central China, TWC meteorologists noticed a shift. While some agencies continued to flag the entire remnant plume as volcanic ash, TWC’s analysis suggested the trailing edge was primarily sulfur dioxide (SO₂) — a gas that, while notable, does not pose the same structural threat to jet engines as abrasive volcanic ash.

Over China, TWC SIGMETs focus on where the narrowing and thinning remnant ash resides.

The result: The Weather Company was able to drop SIGMETs over northern India and eventually east of Shanghai hours before official agencies, as our team confirmed the ash had dissipated into harmless gas.

Comparing government vs. The Weather Company SIGMET precision

A time lapse view of the Hali Gubbi event comparing government and TWC SIGMETs.

Why precision is the ultimate safety tool

For pilots who may be looking at a weather brief that is already three or four hours old by the time they reach the cockpit, precision is synonymous with confidence. Knowing exactly where the “narrowing and thinning” remnant ash resides — rather than seeing a giant red block on the EFB — allows for better in-flight decision-making and fewer “just in case” diversions that eat into fuel reserves.

By integrating volcanic ash insights within our Enroute Hazards suite, we provide the clarity needed to keep the fleet moving without compromising passenger safety.

How confident is your volcanic ash response?

Don’t let outdated or overly broad advisories ground your fleet or put passengers at risk. See how our high-precision SIGMETs within Pilotbrief and Maverick Dispatch can streamline your operations during the next major eruption.

Turbulence remains one of aviation’s most persistent safety and operational challenges. Moderate-or-greater turbulence reports per 100 flight hours have been steadily climbing in recent years.¹ And it’s also the leading cause of in-flight injuries, accounting for the majority of air carrier accidents recorded by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board between 2008 and 2022.²

In a world of razor-thin margins and viral social media moments, a single “clear air” turbulence (CAT) encounter can trigger a cascade of costs. When an aircraft hits severe turbulence, the financial fallout can be immediate: flight diversions, emergency medical services at the gate, and the grounding of aircraft for multi-day structural inspections. Beyond the balance sheet, these events erode passenger trust and disrupt crew scheduling or impact pilot flight time limits. For operations teams, this means the tools and strategies that worked a decade ago may no longer be enough — especially as weather becomes increasingly erratic in a changing climate.

The turbulence problem demands a more sophisticated, real-time approach. Building on our trusted solutions for fleet safety, The Weather Company’s turbulence nowcast delivers exactly that. Embedded within Maverick Dispatch, it synthesizes real-time observations, model forecasts, and human forecaster expertise. The result: a single, frequently updated snapshot of current turbulence from one authoritative source — one screen, one truth.

Today’s problem: More data, but less clarity

The challenge isn’t a lack of data; it’s an abundance of noise. Flight dispatchers and ops teams can be flooded with fragmented information. As a result, they are sometimes forced to do “mental math” to reconcile what’s in front of them. Real-time observations are scattered across multiple sources, including:

• Automated systems measuring both aircraft shake and atmospheric conditions.
• Traditional PIREPs, which remain globally critical despite their subjectivity.
• NCAR’s in-situ EDR algorithm, now standard on new Boeing aircraft.

Existing forecaster products provide:

• SIGMET and FPG polygons issued by trained The Weather Company meteorologists, often in three hour windows to account for dynamic conditions.
• Polygonal regions account for dynamic conditions through a forecast period and hazardous turbulence may evolve through the forecast period.
• Turbulence reports are valuable for real time situational awareness but often come with questions such as “will the turbulence persist when I arrive?”

Many forecasting services fall short because they fail to reconcile their models with fresh, real-time observations. When teams are forced to juggle static forecasts against observations streaming in every minute, it can lead to “analysis paralysis.” Our approach eliminates this friction, turning model output, observations, and forecaster input into a single, verified truth.

Turbulence nowcast: From data fatigue to tactical confidence

The Weather Company’s newly-developed turbulence nowcast does the heavy lifting for your team by fusing these fragmented signals into one high-fidelity stream. Unlike traditional models that update only a few times a day, the turbulence nowcast refreshes every 10 minutes. It doesn’t just present data; it synthesizes it. By blending diagnostic signals like global models, aircraft observations, radar observations, satellite observations, lighting observations, and forecaster input into one high-resolution grid, we provide the clarity needed to “thread the needle” through complex weather.

The big picture: Global modeling builds strategic awareness

GRAF (Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System) model diagnostics operate at horizontal resolutions of 15 kilometers, forecasting large-scale atmospheric phenomena — mountain waves, thunderstorm outflows, jet stream dynamics — out to 72 hours in 3D. But, the turbulence that actually impacts aircraft occurs at scales of just 100 meters or so.

Bridging that gap requires sophisticated turbulence diagnostics: algorithms that translate model-scale conditions into aircraft-scale forecasts. Artificial intelligence optimally blends these diagnostics based on atmospheric level and forcing conditions, producing gridded forecasts in both EDR and categorical turbulence intensity.

The human-over-the-loop advantage

While we leverage industry-leading AI, we believe in “human-over-machine” reliability. Our solution utilizes SIGMET and FPG nudging, where our global team of meteorologists refines the AI-synthesized output in real-time. This helps prevent your flight crews from reacting to “ghost” turbulence vs. the most tactically accurate nowcast available.

How it works: From fragmented to unified turbulence nowcast data

The turbulence nowcast delivers global coverage with immediate insight into where turbulence exists right now — not where it was an hour ago, or might be in four hours. It starts with GRAF’s turbulence forecast as its foundation, then blends the right ingredients to enhance it intelligently using multiple data streams, including:

• Observation nudging: Adjusts the forecast grid toward in-situ EDR data and the latest turbulence reports from all available sources — automated systems like The Weather Company’s TAPS^®, traditional PIREPs (scaled by aircraft size and type to support consistency), and more. This helps enable the grid to reflect what aircraft are actually experiencing.
• SIGMET and FPG nudging (an innovation from The Weather Company): Scales turbulence values within meteorologist-issued warning polygons so the grid remains consistent with human forecaster expertise. If a SIGMET indicates moderate turbulence in a region, the nowcast reflects that intelligence.
• Intelligent interpolation: Supports smooth temporal continuity as conditions evolve between preceding and following forecast hours.

The result: A three-dimensional EDR grid at 15-kilometer horizontal resolution and 1,000-foot vertical resolution, from 1,000 ft to FL500. The same familiar grid operations teams already use with GRAF Turbulence is now infused with real-time awareness.

The turbulence nowcast isn’t just faster — it’s smarter. It merges the comprehensive spatial coverage of model forecasts with the immediacy of live observations and the tactical judgment of expert meteorologists. For dispatch and flight operations, that means one authoritative answer: This is where turbulence is, right now.

See the difference: Forecast vs. “nowcast”

What separates a forecast from a “nowcast” becomes clearer when you see them side by side. The turbulence nowcast enhances turbulence regions where recent observations and SIGMET/FPG polygons indicate heightened activity. When real-time intelligence is layered in, areas that might appear benign in the model forecast reveal themselves as active hazards. Similarly, the nowcast reduces turbulence regions in areas where recent flights have found smooth air.

Turbulence nowcast (right) side-by-side base comparison with GRAF Turbulence (left), featuring enhancement of turbulence severity due to recent observations, SIGMETs, and more.

Know now, decide fast: Actionable, real-time turbulence intelligence

Turbulence will always be part of aviation. The Weather Company’s turbulence nowcast gives operations teams the real-time clarity they need to act proactively —  reducing passenger and crew injuries, costly aircraft inspections, schedule disruptions, and the spillover that likely follows.

This isn’t about generating more alerts; it’s about generating better situational awareness from the world’s most accurate forecaster.³ Take advantage of a single, trusted source for what’s happening in the atmosphere right now — so you can focus on what happens next.

Recent headlines have put a sharp focus on a critical industry challenge: aviation turbulence. The tragic Singapore Airlines incident is a stark reminder of the risks. But these aren’t isolated events; they’re part of a scientifically documented trend. An increase in clear-air turbulence (CAT), driven by a changing climate, demands that we evolve our approach to turbulence mitigation. For airlines, the key to enhancing safety and operational efficiency lies in shifting from reactive reporting to proactive, data-driven avoidance.

Let’s face it: Weather-related challenges aren’t only an operational headache for airlines; they are a massive financial burden. Turbulence encounters, crosswind complications, and conditions that trigger irregular operations (IROPs) cost the industry hundreds of millions each year globally. We’re talking injury claims, operational delays, aircraft repairs, cargo damage, and revenue losses that cascade through entire flight networks. Airlines need to stop playing defense and start getting ahead of these challenges.

The growing threat of clear-air turbulence

For decades, the industry has managed turbulence with turbulence forecasts and pilot reports. But these traditional methods are being challenged by clear-air turbulence. This invisible threat occurs in cloudless skies. It often catches flight crews by surprise, giving them no time to react.

Limited connectivity in the cockpit leads to uncertainty about the location, extent, and severity of enroute impacts. In turn, this exposes flights to the risks of crosswinds and IROPs scenarios leading to costly disruptions. Weather challenges demand real-time awareness.

Science confirms: Turbulence on the rise

A landmark 2023 study found that severe CAT has already increased by 55% over the North Atlantic in the past 40 years due to a changing climate,¹ with further significant increases projected. And according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), turbulence accounts for more than a third of all major airline accidents.² The vast majority result in serious injuries to passengers or crew. This isn’t just a safety and comfort issue; the operational costs — from diversions to structural inspections and reputational damage — are also significant.

From reactive reports to proactive turbulence mitigation

The fundamental weakness of traditional turbulence management is data lag. For example, pilots often lack real-time data — especially when connectivity is limited. A manual Pilot Report (PIREP) is a subjective snapshot of the past. By the time it’s relayed to an aircraft, the atmospheric conditions may have already changed.

Weather challenges demand real-time awareness. So the future of flight safety may depend on your ability to shift from reactive to proactive. We must move from isolated, subjective turbulence reports to a comprehensive, real-time, and objective view of the atmosphere.

It’s not what a pilot felt — it’s what the atmosphere is doing right now. The Weather Company’s approach is built on a unique synthesis of real-time EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) data, high-resolution weather modeling, and the combined expertise of aviation meteorologists. Automated alerts can be relayed via ACARS to pilots when other avenues fail. This works even in limited or non-connected cockpit scenarios. Pilots can have confidence these alerts are founded in weather intelligence from the world’s most accurate forecaster.³

Maverick WXAlert: Reducing enroute weather challenges through timely, direct cockpit alerting

On the ground or in the air, real-time data provides the detailed atmospheric intelligence pilots and dispatchers need. Maverick WXAlert combines multiple data sources into a single, proprietary system that keeps pilots informed — even when connectivity is limited. This workflow-integrated solution helps teams operate proactively with:

• Resilient ACARS cockpit communication: Delivers real-time, moderate or higher turbulence EDR updates directly to the cockpit via ACARS — even when in-flight connectivity is limited
• Tactical enroute decision-making: Assists in managing IROPs and guiding pilots on optimal diversion alternates
• Improved safety and efficiency: Shares synchronized alerts to both dispatchers and pilots the moment a flight is forecast to encounter an enroute weather hazard

Turbulence forecasting: Where experience and innovation converge

The Weather Company meteorologists — with an average of over 10 years of experience in aviation forecasting — don’t just rely on standard global weather models. They also leverage a proprietary Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF^TM) that updates rapidly. It captures turbulence-prone areas with far greater precision than conventional models. Better resolution means more accurate predictions of where atmospheric hazards are most likely to develop. This proven, reliable weather intelligence helps pilots to optimize routes that prioritize safety, efficiency, and passenger comfort.

Alert messages are generated when a flight is projected to intersect an enroute hazard.

Turbulence intelligence straight to the cockpit

Real-time, crowdsourced turbulence data becomes exponentially more powerful when it is integrated across the entire operational workflow. This creates a connected ecosystem to enhance safety. The Weather Company is strengthening our turbulence avoidance solutions with the new integration of EDR data.

Maverick WXAlert is more than just a turbulence alerting system. Operation teams can take advantage of the ability to deliver timely, precise, and actionable alerts and other features directly to the cockpit in limited or non-connected scenarios via ACARS, including:

Enroute Hazard SIGMETS (proprietary) and Flight Plan Guidance (FPGs)

Get an incisive, actionable view of:

• Turbulence, crosswinds, proprietary SIGMETs, IROPs, and other impacts; monitored, redefined, and verified continuously by expert aviation meteorologists 24/7 x 365
• Route plan and altitude optimization powered by proprietary modeling

Decision support integration

Help stakeholders operate on the same page with:

• Flight-following solutions: Dispatcher workflows integrated with AI-driven weather awareness for faster, safer decision-making from ground to air
• Fusion Replay: On-demand post-event analysis
• Pilotbrief^Ⓡ: Collaborative preflight and in-flight crew awareness
• Aviation APIs: Enterprise data services curated and formatted to specific airline needs

Turbulence advisory

Fill critical information gaps and operational blind spots with:

• Moderate or higher turbulence reports, including EDR, PIREPs, or TAPS – prior to SIGMET or FPG amendments
• Timely alerting to mitigate impacts of emerging significant hazards
• Severity and 3D airspace impacts

Smarter decisions across every phase from preflight to landing

Build confidence, collaboration, and sharpen decision making from flight planning to post-review. Enable a wider range of weather alerts for turbulence and beyond with the Maverick platform’s condition manager, like:

• Expanded hazard alerting: Includes alerts for crosswinds, proprietary SIGMETs and FPGs, as well as official government-issued SIGMETs and AIRMETs
• Deeper intelligence for critical IROP scenarios: Provides real-time context on what’s causing holdings and go-arounds, diversion information, or what weather conditions exist at alternate airports

Clarity and confidence across every flight phase

The recent turbulence events are a clear call to action. As an industry, we have a shared responsibility to meet this evolving challenge with the best technology and most collaborative strategies available. At The Weather Company, our commitment is solid: delivering proven, accurate data and comprehensive flight turbulence solutions that transform atmospheric data into decisive, life-saving actions.

The skies keep changing, but together we have the tools and commitment to keep flying them as safely as possible.

Dense fog doesn’t negotiate. When it rolls in, it obscures runways, and forces operational decisions worth millions — in mere minutes.

At King County International Airport (BFI) — better known as Boeing Field — just south of downtown Seattle, UPS flies four aircraft every morning within a tight 40-minute arrival window. Standard TAF and TCF outlooks miss the critical nuances that a human can provide. Examples include understanding impact likelihood, timing significance, and offering assurance for decision making. This gateway location demonstrates how integrated weather experts can help transform uncertainty into actionable intelligence for critical, micro-scale decisions.

High-stakes hub operations: The 30,000 package equation

The fog threatened more than just visibility; it threatened the entire daily operation.

UPS flies four 767 aircraft into Boeing Field most mornings within a tight 40-minute arrival window. Here is what was at stake in that narrow operational window:

• Inbound impact: 10,000 UPS Next Day Air packages, plus additional cargo
• Outbound impact: 20,000 UPS Next Day packages scheduled for departure on the turn
• Total disruption: 30,000 commitments hanging in the balance

The operational constraint: Why timing is everything

Once an aircraft lands, packages immediately flow to specific gates based on each plane’s destination. That routing is locked — packages are coming out, and the destination sequence cannot be changed.

Realizing an aircraft has a Minimum Equipment List (MEL) before it reaches its gate is critical. Early, accurate forecasting allows operations to reposition pilots and aircraft before landing. This maximizes the chances of maintaining next-day service commitments across the entire network.

The embedded expert: Transforming uncertainty into actionable intelligence

The Boeing Field case study is yet another example of why The Weather Company’s FAA-compliant, EWINS Weather Forecast Services positions meteorologists where decisions happen — side-by-side in operations centers alongside dispatchers and air traffic coordinators. Having the right expert in the room separates anticipation from reaction.

The initial conditions were dire:

• Fog forecast: 300 feet overcast, one mile fog visibility, light mist
• UPS minimums at BFI: 290 feet ceiling decision height, 4,000 feet RVR
• Morning fog risk: Moderate (30–50%), then upgraded to High (51%+) after 12Z

Fog covers the terminal airspace at Boeing Field, diminishing visibility.

Crisis inbound: When the fog forecast hits minimums

With four planes already inbound, the 1053Z METAR observation: half-mile visibility with an overcast cloud layer 200 feet above the ground.

ATC permitted the first aircraft to make an approach, and it descended through the fog layer to decision height. The pilot searched for runway lights that should have appeared through the mist — they weren’t visible.

The plane entered a low-level holding pattern, burning precious fuel with each orbit. After discussion with Flight Ops, the three other aircraft — which were minutes behind — were given a critical call: Hold at 25,000 to 28,000 feet.

This decision maximized their fuel endurance and bought time. The embedded meteorologist (MET) proceeded to find a solution that didn’t exist in any TAF.

A 50-mile wide cloud and a 20-minute chance

Concerns mounted about diverting all four aircraft and collapsing the entire operation. But the MET saw something in the satellite imagery.

Managers gathered urgently in the Meteorology office, and the briefing from the MET was direct. A narrow cloud deck, only 50 miles wide at 4,000 feet, was moving directly toward Boeing Field. This wasn’t speculation or probability ranges — this was observable atmospheric physics in motion.

Real-time weather intelligence from the world’s most accurate forecaster¹ revealed a critical solution. The cloud would temporarily lift the fog deck, for perhaps 20 to 25 minutes. This one window was also the only chance to land all four aircraft on time.

Precision forecasting meets operational reality

The airline managers faced a decision with little to no safety net. Bring three aircraft down from holding altitude based on a 20-minute fog forecast window, or divert and accept that 30,000 customers would miss their service commitments.

They made the high-stakes call, pulling all three holding planes down to 10,000 feet. The cloud moved over Boeing Field exactly as forecast. The fog deck lifted, and all four aircraft landed within the window — one after another.

Then, just as the MET predicted, the cloud moved out. Fog returned immediately, dropping visibility back below minimums. It stayed that way until 17Z — five hours later.

Critical insights saving the day

Every inbound package made its service window. Crews stayed within duty limits. The 20,000 outbound packages departed on schedule. Thirty thousand customers received their deliveries because of a 20-minute forecast window that most meteorological products would never capture.

Without that hyper-specific guidance, the outcome writes itself: no inbound packages make service, crews time out, outbound operations collapse. The entire 30,000-customer chain breaks. Jeff Sarver, Meteorologist-In-Charge (MIC), The Weather Company, stated it clearly afterward: “The confidence level and demeanor of the meteorology team gave them the assurance they needed to make that high-stakes call. Not just the forecast — the confidence behind it, delivered by people who understood both the atmosphere and the operation it was about to disrupt.”

When weather intelligence matters: Confidence vs. the coin flip

Uncertainty makes aviation professionals uncomfortable. Pilots make tactical decisions in real-time with zero margin for error. But perfect forecasts don’t exist — a reality that creates tension between meteorological science and operational necessity.

Pilots make tactical decisions in real time with zero margin for error. But perfect automated forecasts don’t exist — a reality that creates tension between technology and operational necessity.

Consider the dreaded 50% probability (‘PROB 50’) forecast. Meteorologists see the challenge in issuing it, because it feels like a coin flip. But, context transforms that number completely. A 50% chance of freezing drizzle in Atlanta is alarming and operationally disruptive. But the same forecast in Minneapolis is just another winter day.

How confidence changes the game

This is where embedded meteorologists bridge the gap. At Boeing Field that morning, the fog forecast wasn’t about percentages — it was about a 50-mile-wide cloud deck arriving in 20 minutes. That specificity turned uncertainty into actionable intelligence.

Confidence doesn’t eliminate uncertainty. But it can help clarify what to do with it. Airlines with embedded meteorologists make more informed decisions than ever before, particularly when confidence is high in significantly disruptive events. This allows them to proactively cancel flights, reroute passenger connections, and position staff accordingly — sometimes days in advance.

The human element: Embedded expertise changes high-stakes decisions

Embedded meteorologists enhance communication capabilities in ways standard forecasts simply cannot. They discuss scenarios with dispatchers and operational managers, explaining not just the confidence level but the “why” behind it: timing windows, severity thresholds, geographic variability, and more.

One wrong decision coupled with vague intelligence can impact operations for the rest of the day, and domino fast. For example, one airline partner describes embedded meteorologists as their “early warning system.” They added, “A ‘PROB 30’ TAF entry, for example, isn’t enough information to make hub decisions.”

Transitioning from uncertainty to confidence — from “maybe” to “here’s your window” — produces outcomes that cascade through entire networks. That level of operational meteorology goes far beyond what any standard format, like a “PROB30” TAF entry, can communicate.