Beyond the basket: How Weather Targeting is enhancing the power of retail media networks

• Advertisers tapping into retail media networks gain a competitive edge when Weather Targeting adds real-time, localized signals to personalize shopper engagement.

• Weather Targeting enhances first-party data by adding a privacy-compliant, predictive layer that captures consumer intent before it’s expressed.

• Campaigns incorporating weather data can see measurable improvements in engagement, conversion rates, and overall return on ad spend.

• The Weather Company provides AI-powered targeting solutions to help deliver reliable performance at scale.

Retail media networks (RMNs) have evolved. They’ve moved from simple ad placements to sophisticated, data-driven ecosystems. These ecosystems now connect brands directly with consumers at their most decisive moments. By 2028, retail media is expected to account for almost a quarter of all U.S. media spend.¹ The race is on to find targeting signals that truly drive conversion. RMNs offer a gold mine of robust first-party data. Yet, the challenge they face today isn’t just capturing attention – it’s capturing relevance.

Forward-thinking retailers and brands are making a key discovery. Weather, perhaps the most universal influence on human behavior, provides this missing link. It connects historical purchase patterns with real-time environmental intelligence – a crucial connection for transforming passive browsers into active buyers.

The Weather Company’s AI-powered Weather Targeting solution goes beyond suggesting sunscreen on sunny days. It leverages over 40 years of weather data science to predict consumer needs based on hyperlocal conditions. These conditions can directly influence purchasing patterns across virtually every retail category.

RMNs are growing, but so are the challenges

RMNs have experienced explosive growth, evolving from a $13 billion channel in 2019 to a $50+ billion powerhouse today.² This surge isn’t coincidental. Every major retailer – Walmart, Amazon, Target, CVS – is building sophisticated RMNs to offer brands the holy grail of advertising: closed-loop attribution connecting ad exposure directly to purchase.

But here’s the catch. The fundamental limitation of retail first-party data is its backward-looking nature. It excels at telling you what consumers purchased previously. Still, it struggles to predict why they might buy something new today. To break through these barriers, marketers need targeting signals that explain the ‘why now’ factor that drives purchases – an added data layer that is real-time, dynamic, scalable, and relevant.

Weather: the signal you didn’t know you needed

The relationship between weather and consumer behavior isn’t merely anecdotal – it’s quantifiable. Research shows that weather can explain up to 40.7% of the variance in daily retail sales, depending on the product category and location.³ This effect stems from fundamental behavioral economics: Weather creates both physical needs (e.g., hydration during heat) and psychological states (e.g., comfort-seeking during cold) that directly influence purchase motivation and urgency.

Weather represents a rare triple-threat in the targeting landscape:

• It’s predictive: Unlike most signals that react to expressed intent, weather anticipates needs before consumers search or browse
• It’s universal: Weather affects everyone, regardless of demographic or psychographic profile
• It’s actionable: Weather conditions create clear, time-bound opportunities for relevant messaging

Why Weather Targeting stands out

The Weather Company takes this a step further. Our Weather Targeting technology analyzes billions of data points across over 40 years of weather patterns, sales data, and consumer behavior to identify complex correlations between specific weather conditions and category-level purchasing across the retail spectrum. By using AI-driven forecasts and real-time data, we help advertisers predict what people will need – even before they start searching.

As the world’s most accurate forecaster,⁴ we provide targeting signals that retailers and brands can confidently use in their media strategies days in advance. A complement to first-party data, this approach creates unprecedented planning capabilities in an industry where agility drives competitive advantage. Our signal allows brands to trust in their ability to anticipate demand, not just respond to it. The connection between weather and retail sales is strong. Tapping into that connection means you’re no longer reacting. You’re anticipating.

Strategic applications across retail categories

Let’s look at how it works in execution:

• Home improvement: Rainy weekends spark indoor project interest. Brands push ads for painting supplies and DIY kits.
• Grocery: A heatwave is on the way. Smart RMNs activate ads for frozen treats and grilling essentials across apps and in-store screens.
• Apparel: A cold front is coming to the area. A retail brand promotes cozy layers on a store’s homepage and sends push notifications about outerwear deals.
• Health & beauty: High humidity and UV levels are forecasted. A neighborhood pharmacy app highlights sunscreen, moisturizers, and frizz-fighting hair products.
• Electronics: A snowstorm is expected. Ads for space heaters, home entertainment systems, or even productivity software go live.

When integrated with retailers’ first-party data, these weather signals create defined audience segments with demonstrated intent, which are ideal for driving relevance within the retail environment.

Easy to integrate, easy to scale

The Weather Company’s Weather Targeting solution plugs directly into leading RMN platforms. Advertisers can activate deals through Deal IDs or connect directly without complicated data-sharing agreements.

And measuring success? Straightforward. Brands can track lift in sales, click-through rates, and return on ad spend. Testing side-by-side with standard RMN tactics often shows stronger performance and deeper engagement.

Weather: The strategic edge in retail media’s future

In the race to win shopper attention at the point of sale, timing is everything. Weather Targeting adds that crucial layer of context that first-party data alone can’t provide. It helps brands anticipate needs, personalize messaging, and boost campaign results across categories.

The Weather Company brings unmatched accuracy,⁵ AI-powered forecasting, and seamless integration to help brands move beyond the basket – and into the moment that drives the purchase.