The Weather Company and SkyPath partnership keeps growing stronger with the rollout of new features into both Pilotbrief and Fusion products. These enhancements help air carriers tap into SkyPath’s crowdsourced turbulence data, so they’re better able to predict, prevent, and mitigate the impact of intensifying clear air turbulence.

The growing challenge of turbulence

Recent studies tell us severe clear air turbulence (CAT) has jumped by 55% in the last 40 years due to intensifying climate change.¹ This rise in turbulence adds up to more injuries to passengers and crew, as well as costs for things like injury damages, aircraft maintenance, and fuel consumption.

SkyPath integration with Pilotbrief and Fusion

Not only does the partnership produce live, crowdsourced turbulence data, it offers airlines the tools they need for an impactful turbulence mitigation strategy. In 2023, SkyPath observed 1.4 billion turbulence reports, so integrating this data into existing EFB and dispatch solutions can equal significant results. The integration of this data set within the TWC suite of aviation products will allow airlines to quickly obtain the best situational awareness possible for efficient and decisive decision making.

Looking at five years of real-world air carrier data—over one million flights—clearly shows that data-powered solutions can reduce turbulence-related injuries to flight attendants by 40-50%, and mean cost savings of close to $10M per year from injury damages alone.²

Features for a smoother and safer journey

SkyPath’s real time data set matched with Fusion’s manage-by-exception workflow enables teams to focus on upcoming impacts to flights. Pilotbrief and Fusion put timely, accurate turbulence data into the tools pilots and dispatchers use daily. To be or not to be seated: they’ll get live notifications of upcoming turbulence, which makes them better equipped to plan and react in real-time, like turning on the fasten seatbelt sign in advance or navigating around turbulence.

Users can also view SkyPath turbulence reports inside a vertical profile, which makes navigating through turbulence at any stage of the ride simple, intuitive, and best of all, safe.

AI + machine learning = a new frontier for ride quality

SkyPath covers 100% of the globe with its AI-based turbulence forecast (“Nowcast”) which boasts an impressive 90% accuracy. It’s no doubt a game-changer, connecting real-time turbulence observations by the SkyPath iPad algorithm with meteorological parameters, and advanced machine learning to predict short-term turbulence for up to six hours. The combination of SkyPath’s data with TWC’s GRAF turbulence forecasting allows for a unified picture of turbulence risks associated with safe travel.

To learn more about SkyPath’s integrations with Pilotbrief and Fusion, register today for our joint webinar, July 11, 10 a.m. EST.

Garden variety or so called “pop-up” thunderstorms are common during the warm season and generally have limited impacts to airline operations. But there’s another kind of summer storm plaguing the airline industry that’s not so innocent: training thunderstorms. What exactly are these severe storms, what impact can they have on airline operations, and how can airline decision makers ensure they’re prepared? Read on.

What are training thunderstorms?

Training thunderstorms occur when a series of individual thunderstorm cells repeatedly propagate over the same geographical area. The overall collection of convective cells associated with training thunderstorms is also known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). While the term “MCS” can apply broadly to any cluster of thunderstorms, a training MCS can result in a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, leading to significant flash flooding. These unique and rather rare convective systems are most common during the summer months across the central United States, occurring most frequently during the late evening and overnight hours.

Thunderstorms erupting across Texas during a hot summer afternoon, causing numerous flight diversions.

Critical to the formation of training MCSs is the presence of a slow moving surface boundary. Commonly a warm front, this boundary is crucial in generating lift to initiate the development of thunderstorms. Once thunderstorms have become established, the slow movement of this boundary can enable several rounds of thunderstorms to traverse the same areas repeatedly.

Further enhancing the likelihood of training thunderstorms is the presence of a low level jet (LLJ). This strong belt of winds in the lower atmosphere aids in transporting the large quantities of atmospheric moisture needed to sustain multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Forecasting training thunderstorms

While certain large-scale atmospheric features can be forecasted with a relatively high degree of accuracy up to several days in advance, finer-scale atmospheric phenomena such as training thunderstorms are much more difficult to predict. In these more nuanced situations, our team of The Weather Company meteorologists leverage a suite of short-term, high-resolution forecast models to better assess atmospheric conditions. Supplementing this model data is our extensive experience forecasting past thunderstorm events, with pattern recognition serving as an invaluable tool in the accurate and timely prediction of disruptive thunderstorm events.

How training thunderstorms disrupt airline operations

As thunderstorms redevelop and repeatedly rumble overhead or in close proximity to an airline’s hub during peak arrival or departure times, the risk of significant operational disruption increases:

• Training thunderstorms over arrival fixes or the airport can lead to airborne holding and possible aircraft diversions when fuel gets low.
• Blocked departure corridors can lead to long delays on the ground as planes become stacked up nose to tail on taxiways while waiting to depart.
• Lightning over the airfield can trigger ramp closures for ground workers which can lead to suspension of aircraft boarding, deplaning, catering operations, baggage transport, and fueling.

All this leads to departure delays and possible gridlock as arriving flights wait for gates occupied by delayed departures. As diversions and delays compound, the risk of cancellations increases. Passengers are left stranded at the airport with little to do but post unfavorable comments on social media followed by negative headlines in the press. Local roadway flooding is also possible which may make getting to and from the airport challenging for passengers and employees. An airline caught by surprise may take days to recover in the aftermath of the worst events.

How The Weather Company helps airlines navigate training thunderstorms

The Weather Company meteorologists embedded within an airlines’ operations center strive to identify and communicate the risk of training thunderstorm events up to a day in advance. The goal is to give the airline ample lead time to develop an operational plan to best manage the event based on the potential start time and duration. A thunderstorm planning outlook is issued the day prior to open a dialogue with airlines’ decision makers. Subsequent forecast updates and tactical communication continue throughout the event until the risk has extinguished.

Summary

Although we as The Weather Company forecasters can’t control the weather, we do work diligently to alert airline decision makers to the potential of a training thunderstorm event. We work side-by-side with them throughout the event to provide the most accurate weather and help the airline weather the storm.

This post is part two of a two-part blog series dedicated to severe thunderstorm education. Read the first installment.

Part one of this series explained why thunderstorms happen during springtime – and what specific weather phenomena creates them. Building on this, let’s go deeper into thunderstorms and convection in general. We’ll also share how The Weather Company’s solutions can help aviation industry professionals like you make better decisions that keep your customers and crews safe.

How does The Weather Company help aviation clients navigate thunderstorms?

Enroute hazards

The Weather Company’s Enroute Hazards solution forecasts organized clusters or lines of storms and produces convection hazards.

Single-cell thunderstorms can be strong to severe and cause significant damage. But they don’t usually meet the spatial distance, or coverage requirement, to warrant a convective hazard (like FPG or SIGMET) to be drawn in the area. For single-cell storms, where Enroute Hazards may not highlight the area with the drawn hazards, pilots can turn to onboard radar to avoid convection.

Onboard radar also helps with developing convection where updrafts can create severe turbulence.

Terminal aerodrome forecasts

The Weather Company issues Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) on a global scale.

With certain TAFs, mainly large hubs, The Weather Company may include a TAF discussion where the forecaster writes about potentially strong or severe storms and, in some cases, may also mention possible threats (i.e., hail, tornado, etc.) with that type of storm.

More about convective hazards

All of the convective hazards generated by The Weather Company include an average base and max height. No aircraft should try to fly below our convective hazards. That’s why we use an average base level.

Our Flight Plan Guidance (FPGs) are usually SCT-BKN (scattered to broken) in coverage which represents between 35% and 50% of coverage.

Typically, these are a strong line or an area of thunderstorms that have well-defined breaks, but not significant coverage.

The Weather Company team does have the ability to draw SCT FPGs from 15% to 35% in the vicinity of a select number of hubs in the United States and in more sensitive or highly traveled U.S. regions, including BOS-ORD-MEM-ORF-BOS.

When it comes to significant meteorological hazards (SIGMETs), they are either BKN, which is 50% to 75% coverage, or solid storms with greater than 75% coverage. BKN coverage is virtually an unbroken line, small breaks are likely, or an area of robust thunderstorms with significant coverage.

SIGMETing this coverage of thunderstorms is our way of advising aviation clients to avoid this area.

A solid area of storms is where there are no breaks in a line of thunderstorms or a large cluster of thunderstorms with no breaks in convection (i.e. Mesoscale Convective System).

Are thunderstorms the biggest risks for aviators?

The greatest threat to aircraft isn’t lightning–aircraft are built to withstand lightning strikes –but rather severe turbulence, hail, and icing.

The convective hazards produced by The Weather Company–like FPGs and SIGMETs–include implied turbulence and icing. It’s generally suggested that aircraft avoid these areas. Each airline will need to follow its individual standard operating procedure on how to handle this.

Hail damage to aircraft, including the windshield, or encountering severe turbulence, means that the aircraft will be taken out of service for maintenance. This impacts time, cost, and potentially airline credibility.

What’s the latest frontier for the aviation industry? Space weather. 

The scientific data available on how space weather impacts avionics is still in development; the industry is currently at a similar level of understanding as with terrestrial weather back in the 1970s. 

That’s why The Weather Company’s Space Weather Task Force is dedicated to advancing this knowledge base. We work closely with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to help aviation professionals navigate its immediate (and currently recognized) effects on airline operations such as communication blackouts caused by sunspots, GPS malfunctions created by geomagnetic storms, or solar radiation exposure to passengers and crew.

Recently, we hosted an exclusive webinar to share how our aviation weather experts handle communication on space weather and its current impacts. We also discuss how The Weather Company is continually innovating and improving these communications.

Example of a visual from the updated space weather bulletins.

Check out the recording below to get more info about how we’re tackling space weather, one event at a time.

In this webinar, you’ll discover:

• A refresher on space weather’s impact
• The way we obtain space weather data from SWPC
• How we communicate space weather events to airlines
• Our plans for innovating in this field
• A helpful Q & A session with attendees

If your airline experiences any effect of space weather, let us know. Your input may help revolutionize the understanding of this phenomena – for your friends at The Weather Company, SWPC, and the world at large.

Ready to get insights? Watch the webinar now.

This post is part one of a two-part blog series dedicated to severe thunderstorm and convection weather education. Read part 2 here.

Picture this: it’s late March. Grass is greener. Flowers are budding. The temperature is picking up. The weather is finally calming down, and you let out a sigh of relief.

Then it happens. Strong gusts of wind, bouts of hail, and even tornadoes. Looks like you’re not out of the woods yet.

That’s because spring isn’t just a time of renewal. It’s also the time when severe weather starts to show its true power. And for meteorologists, it’s the most exciting season to witness–especially because of severe thunderstorms.

What causes severe thunderstorms during spring in the US?

The answer has to do with the rise in temperatures as the northern hemisphere increases its angle to the sun. This causes longer daylight hours. But there are many more variables needed to create severe thunderstorms. These include:

• Available moisture
• An unstable atmosphere
• A lifting mechanism
• Wind shear

How these phenomena create severe thunderstorms

During the spring, the Polar Jet is still very active and is associated as a boundary with cold Canadian air on its northern side. This cold air mass comes down from Canada and interacts with the warm, moist air that moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This available moisture is crucial in the development of severe thunderstorms.

What’s more, the Great Central Plains provides an excellent backdrop, or “battle zone” if you will, for these two air masses. When spring arrives, the upper atmosphere is relatively cool–even cold. And the lower levels of the atmosphere get warmer thanks to the longer days.

This is the catalyst for the second ingredient in severe thunderstorm development: an unstable atmosphere. Meanwhile, the Polar Jet still dips down into the central US, creating strong mid- and upper-level disturbances in the atmosphere.

These disturbances support frontal zones and frontal waves which are located between the “battle zone” of two air masses located on or near the surface (in this case, the Great Plains.) And thus, we have our third ingredient for severe weather: a lifting mechanism.

So what about the last ingredient: wind shear? 

Forms of wind shear

1. Vertical wind shear: This type enhances the thunderstorm updrafts, allowing the storm to continue to get stronger and stronger.
2. Lower-level directional wind shear: Thunderstorms need this kind of wind shear to occur in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which helps the updrafts to start rotating.

When all these ingredients are in play, convection happens. And weather forecasters feel the hype. They know severe springtime thunderstorms are coming up–and they’re in for quite a show.

Wrapping up

While this isn’t a comprehensive list of severe weather requirements, I hope I gave you a quick and easy resource to understand the basics of why spring is a likely time for severe weather thunderstorms.

So now, why not go outside and enjoy the possibilities spring has to offer? Just keep in mind that there are bigger forces that can bring you a pretty entertaining light show.

Want to know more about how The Weather Company helps the aviation industry operate amid thunderstorms? Check out part two of this blog post series.

Weather forecasts have been around since the beginning of civilization where humans used recurring meteorological and astronomical events to better monitor weather patterns and plan for seasonal changes. Initially based on mostly inaccurate observations of the sky, wind, and temperature, these forecasts have certainly evolved to be more advanced and reliable. Incorporating technology into weather forecasting began in the 1700s with the barometer and thermometer. These tools helped pave the way for more accurate weather predictions.

Today, almost everyone relies on weather forecasting to anticipate inclement or severe weather and plan their day accordingly. These forecasts also help flights plan their routes, utilities plan their reaction plans, and communities plan for evacuations in cases of severe storms.

But how truly accurate are weather forecasts? Are you as a broadcaster providing a reliable weather source for your viewers? Let’s investigate.

What is accurate weather forecasting?

Weather forecasting is the process of combining scientific insights and technology to assess the future of the weather. Meteorologists try to predict changes in the atmosphere, precipitation, and temperature.

In order to produce an accurate weather forecast, a lot of scientific research, technology, and expertise is required. Currently, there are both short-term and long-term forecasts that meteorologists look at.

Short-range weather forecasts

These are forecasts for one to fourteen days out. They are physics-based models that take in weather data from around the world and perform a series of equations to produce insights regarding current and upcoming weather conditions.

Long-range weather forecasts

Long-range weather forecasts are any forecast that is beyond 14 days out. Since weather and the associated data points are ever-evolving, these are less precise than short-range forecasts. They can be based on historical data and an analysis of both past and future weather trends.

Why are reliable weather forecasts important?

Weather affects people’s daily lives and accurate weather forecasting allows communities to better prepare for the impacts of changing weather. Weather forecasting determines the likelihood of a severe weather event or strong storm. By leveraging this information, utilities can strengthen the grid and schools can determine if it’s safe for parents to drive their children.

How do meteorologists predict the weather?

In this day and age, meteorologists have a wide set of advanced tools at their disposal. These tools collect various data points to help make an accurate prediction of weather patterns so broadcasters can provide viewers with the best information.

Tools needed for forecasting the weather

There are a number of tools in the meteorologist’s arsenal to help predict the weather. Below are a few:

Weather radar

Weather radar is a tool used to measure precipitation, incoming storms, and other severe weather.

Weather balloons

Weather balloons are used to measure temperature, wind speed and direction, and air pressure in the layers of the troposphere.

Barometer

A barometer is a forecasting tool used to measure atmospheric pressure in a certain environment.

Thermometers

Thermometers measure the temperature in a given location.

Satellite and weather data

Satellite and weather data observe cloud patterns around the globe. There are three types of satellites that meteorologists use:

• Polar-orbiting satellites
• Geostationary satellites
• Deep space satellites

Weather stations

Weather stations observe temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, and rainfall.

IoT sensors

IoT-enabled technology measures weather factors like temperature, moisture, and pressure.

Weather forecasting models

Data sets collected need to be inputted into a weather forecasting model that can understand how various inputs can affect the outcome of different weather events.

What is the process for forecasting the weather?

There are a few steps to forecasting the weather. These involve:

Data collection and observation

This step involves using various tools to collect weather data, such as IoT sensors, weather balloons, and weather radar. Meteorologists need multiple datasets to make the best predictions possible.

Analysis of weather patterns and data

Analysis of weather patterns involves taking this data and using forecasting models to determine future trends, forecast the temperature, or determine the likelihood of a severe weather event, such as a blizzard, flood, or hurricane.

Predicting weather’s impact

Weather insights should then be used to determine the impact it will have on the surrounding area. Meteorologists determine how dangerous the weather will be, the range of temperature, and the type of precipitation. Together with machine learning, meteorologists can determine how communities and businesses should prepare for upcoming weather.

How to accurately forecast the weather: the models used in weather forecasting

There are a number of weather models that meteorologists utilize to provide an accurate forecast for viewers.

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses complex mathematical equations based on physics regarding how the air, heat, and moisture move through the atmosphere. It is the most common type of weather model that uses current data and observations to forecast future weather conditions like precipitation, temperature, and hundreds of other weather elements.

AI Weather Prediction

AI weather forecasting tools have been in use since the 1970s. However, as machine learning techniques continue to improve, these predictions have gotten more accurate.

GRAF

GRAF is the first hourly-updating weather system that can predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet. With far greater accuracy than traditional weather models (updating every hour versus 6-12 hours), the GRAF weather model uses high-resolution data and the latest in weather graphics and technology to predict weather activity around the globe.

How reliable are weather forecasts?

Short-range weather forecasts are considerably more accurate than long-range forecasts. In fact, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a five-day forecast is accurate about 80% of the time. A one-day temperature forecast is typically accurate within 2.5 degrees.

Accuracy drops off as time increases since meteorologists struggle to apply physics-based models to these longer timeframes. As a result, a weather forecast beyond 10 days is only right about half of the time.

What is the most accurate weather forecast?

In a study by ForecastWatch, 140 million forecasts were evaluated between the years 2017 to 2021 and they found The Weather Company to be the most accurate weather forecaster overall.

“A forecast is most helpful when it comes from a recognized, trusted source, and the pursuit of accuracy is at the foundation of what we seek to provide to help customers, consumers, and marketers to make important decisions every day,” said Sheri Bachstein, chief executive officer of The Weather Company and general manager of The Weather Company. “The study is evidence of how The Weather Company is helping advance the science of weather forecasting through continued innovations in AI, data, and cloud computing.”

It was found that The Weather Company is about 3.5 times more accurate than the other providers in the study. Each year the study was conducted this gap widened.

Benefits of accurate weather forecasting

There are a number of benefits to providing accurate weather forecasting. They include the following:

Broadcasters can better inform their viewers

By incorporating accurate forecasting into their news production, broadcasters will keep viewers tuned in which increases ratings, advertiser demand and revenue. Broadcasting companies can also confidently advertise themselves as an accurate source for weather forecasts which establishes trust and credibility.

Advertisers can better target their audiences

With solutions like The Weather Company’s Weather Targeting, which leverages accurate weather data, advertisers can target consumers based on the upcoming weather conditions in their area. For example, if it suddenly gets colder in Florida, advertisers can present messaging that encourages users to buy a hot coffee. Weather targeting is also sophisticated enough to determine that weather must be combined with geo-location. For example: 60 degrees in Miami may have locals unpacking their winter gear, while 60 degrees in Massachusetts will likely have Bostonians enjoying the outdoors in short sleeves.

Airplanes can monitor turbulent weather

Having an accurate reading of weather conditions is essential to airplane pilots. There needs to be an awareness of any upcoming turbulent weather conditions in order to plan accordingly and keep passengers safe.

Utility companies can plan for outages and repairs

Having accurate weather forecasts allows utilities to properly schedule their team for anticipated outages and repairs. By utilizing accurate weather technology, utility companies can better prepare the grid and more effectively keep the lights on.

Examples of accurate weather forecasting

VTV creates accurate weather reports to keep viewers informed

When VTV came to The Weather Company they were looking to improve the accuracy of their weather reports so that viewers could better plan their everyday lives and take precautions in the case of floods or storms.

VTV utilized weather visualization software and advanced weather data from The Weather Company to create compelling 3D graphics and instant weather updates. With The Weather Company’s help, VTV was able to achieve the following results:

• Provide public safety with near real-time alerts for severe weather conditions
• Empower weather broadcasters to create compelling, informative graphics
• Attract new viewers and advertisers to VTV’s weather reports

What is the future of accurate weather forecasting?

As weather forecasts continue to grow in accuracy, viewers’ expectations will begin to shift toward how a weather forecast can influence their day-to-day lives. According to Magid Research, viewers want more accurate predictions based on their current location. This would include weather forecasts by zip code or even street level.

As AI developments continue to improve, more weather forecasting best practices will include the use of machine learning in order to predict the weather. This would include taking insight from several models in order to make the most accurate prediction possible. As news stations seek to prioritize rapid and accurate weather forecasts, AI will continue to play a larger role in how weather predictions work.

Viewers also want more detailed information on severe weather and on what the next days will look like at all times of the day. As weather forecasts become more and more accurate, viewers will be more eager to stay tuned in based on the depth of the forecast, the storytelling involved, and how a meteorologist can apply a weather forecast to their day-to-day schedule.

Final thoughts

Viewers are increasingly expecting accurate weather reports from the meteorologists they tune into. At The Weather Company we provide a variety of broadcasting solutions where the GRAF model is embedded and can be used for high-quality resolution weather data to provide a clearer picture of weather conditions around the globe.

Ready to learn more about the benefits of accurate weather forecasting? Contact us today!

Accurate weather forecasting frequently asked questions

Which weather radar is the most accurate?

The Weather Company has been named the most accurate weather forecaster overall, according to a 2017-2022 ForecastWatch study, commissioned by The Weather Company.

Can weather forecasting be 100% accurate?

Due to how quickly conditions can change, weather forecasts can never be 100% accurate. However, based on historical trends and atmospheric data, meteorologists can get close.

Have weather forecasts gotten more accurate?

While meteorologists still record weather data the same as they did over half a century ago, the tools that they use to analyze trends such as AI for weather forecasting have become more advanced, allowing for a more reliable weather forecast.

What is weather analysis and prediction?

Weather analysis and prediction include analyzing several weather models based on atmospheric conditions and predicting what the weather forecast will look like in the future.

How are weather forecasts made?

Weather forecasts are made through the analysis of weather models and historical trends. Based on this information, meteorologists develop a forecast that is in line with these conditions.

How accurate is a 14-day forecast?

While a 14-day forecast is more accurate than it was fifty years ago, the conditions that affect weather can change in a matter of seconds. So, while 14-day forecasts have been more accurate, 100% accuracy is simply not achievable.

How accurate is a 7-day forecast?

7-day forecasts are more accurate than 14-day forecasts, but the same rules apply. Weather conditions can change suddenly, impacting a forecast within a matter of seconds. While more accurate today, 7-day forecasts cannot be 100% accurate.

How accurate are long-range weather forecasts?

Long-range weather forecasts are variable depending on the time. 7-day forecasts are generally more accurate than 14-day forecasts. However, 100% accuracy is near-impossible due to the potential of suddenly changing weather conditions.