• The ability to forecast volcanic ash accurately is vital, as ash can lead to severe engine damage and operational disruptions in aviation.
• The Weather Company offers real-time, global volcanic ash advisory forecasts to help airlines proactively plan routes to avoid hazardous airspace.
• Advanced tools like RGB satellite imagery and webcams provide precise tracking of volcanic ash for safer flight operations.
• Impact reports from The Weather Company enhance situational awareness for airports near active volcanoes and help minimize the risk of disruptions.
• The Weather Company’s unique tools, such as the Enroute Hazards package and enhanced SIGMETs, provide airlines with advanced insights to avoid hazardous airspace and maintain safe operations.

Volcanic ash is a danger that can turn a routine flight into a risky endeavor, damaging engines, blinding pilots, grounding entire fleets, and putting passenger safety at risk. For airlines, the stakes are high, making the need for accurate forecasting inclusive of volcanic ash extremely critical. With industry-leading tools that go beyond standard advisories, such as the Enroute Hazards package and enhanced volcanic ash SIGMETs, The Weather Company’s forecast solutions provide aviation leaders with real-time insights to help outmaneuver ash clouds, keep flights on track, and greatly improve safety for passengers and crew.

The operational risks of volcanic ash

Volcanic ash can cause severe damage to aircraft engines, leading to potentially dangerous situations mid-flight. The ash particles are highly abrasive and can melt inside the engine’s combustion chambers, creating blockages that can result in engine failure. In addition to engine damage, volcanic ash can interfere with navigation systems, obstruct windshields, and drastically reduce visibility, all of which elevate the risk of flying through affected airspace.

These risks often force airlines to reroute flights, delay departures, or even cancel operations, leading to costly disruptions and logistical headaches. As ash clouds move through the atmosphere, operational leaders need precise and timely information to make quick decisions and avoid unnecessary impacts on both passengers and airline schedules.

Comprehensive forecasting for aviation safety

Volcanic Ash forecast Flight Plan Guidance (FPGs) display

To address these challenges, The Weather Company offers industry-leading tools, such as the Enroute Hazards package, designed to enhance volcanic ash and aviation safety for aviation customers of all sizes. Beyond the basic Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) bulletins, our services include enhanced volcanic ash SIGMET (Significant Meteorological Information) notifications, which are triggered when ash reaches key thresholds: 6,000 feet above the summit of a volcano or 10,000 feet above ground, extending over 50 nautical miles. SIGMETs are also issued for added safety if ash is detected near customer destinations, even if it doesn’t meet these thresholds.

Real-time monitoring and advanced tools

Monitoring volcanic ash in real-time is complex, but The Weather Company offers robust tools for precise tracking. RGB satellite imagery, created using GOES-East and GOES-West satellites, offers accurate identification and monitoring of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, even in complicated weather conditions. By employing techniques like channel differencing with the ash-sensitive 8.4-micron channel, this imagery allows forecasters to confidently differentiate ash from other elements like steam or water vapor.

To further refine these forecasts, The Weather Company leverages third-party webcams to visually monitor volcanic activity in real time. These webcams provide continuous views of volcanoes like Popocatépetl in Mexico, which allow forecasters to distinguish between ash emissions and less threatening emissions like steam or gas. When combined with satellite data, this real-time monitoring enables assessments of volcanic activity, leading to better decision-making by airline operations teams.

RGB imagery enhances satellite data to highlight atmospheric particulates. Using channels sensitive to volcanic ash (8.4 µm) helps forecasters identify affected areas.

Ash forecast modeling

For larger eruptions, The Weather Company uses sophisticated ash forecast modeling to predict how ash will disperse through the atmosphere. These forecasts are generated using GFS-based weather models that take into account jet streams and other atmospheric factors to predict how ash clouds will move and interact with flight paths. This type of modeling is crucial for larger eruptions where ash can linger in the atmosphere for days or even weeks, posing extended risks to aviation.

For minor ash emissions, existing patterns of ash movement support decision-making. For larger eruptions, forecasts of ash dispersion provide airlines with critical information on ash location and projected movement, helping them to plan effectively for immediate and long-term impacts.

Potential volcanic ash impact reports

Potential Volcanic Ash Impact Report tracks daily volcanic ash movement, aiding aviation planning near active volcanoes.

Daily aviation volcanic ash reports are another critical component of our service, particularly for airports located near active volcanoes. Airports like those near Popocatépetl, Fuego, and Sangay receive continuous updates on the potential movement of ash toward key airspace and terminals. While these reports don’t predict explosive events, they do provide detailed insights into how current volcanic emissions might affect nearby operations.

These reports are invaluable for situational awareness, especially for airports that operate under the constant risk of volcanic activity. By offering advanced notice of potential ash impacts, airports and airlines can make proactive adjustments, reducing the risk of unexpected disruptions.

Human-over-the-loop reports for comprehensive insights

Navigate volcanic ash hazards with confidence using The Weather Company’s detailed Human-Over-the-Loop (HOTL) Reports. These reports compile relevant volcanic ash data into easy-to-read PDFs, featuring essential information such as SIGMETs, wind barbs, and satellite imagery. With this consolidated data, airlines gain a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, allowing for more informed decisions regarding flight safety and route planning.

The HOTL reports put all relevant information in one place, offering a comprehensive picture of volcanic activity in real time. Operational leaders can take immediate, decisive action to adjust flight operations, minimizing risks and keeping passengers and crew safe.

Staying ahead with proactive volcanic ash forecasting

Volcanic ash presents significant risks to aviation, but these challenges can be effectively managed through proactive planning and real-time insights. The Weather Company’s suite of solutions helps airlines stay ahead of disruptions, empowering decision makers to help maintain safe and efficient operations, even in volatile conditions. And, because forecasting services from The Weather Company seamlessly integrate into current operational workflows, airlines can start taking advantage of this critical technology with minimal effort.

Don’t let volcanic ash cloud your operations. Elevate your airline’s safety and efficiency with The Weather Company’s industry-leading Weather Forecast Services.

The Weather Company and SkyPath partnership keeps growing stronger with the rollout of new features into both Pilotbrief and Fusion products. These enhancements help air carriers tap into SkyPath’s crowdsourced turbulence data, so they’re better able to predict, prevent, and mitigate the impact of intensifying clear air turbulence.

The growing challenge of turbulence

Recent studies tell us severe clear air turbulence (CAT) has jumped by 55% in the last 40 years due to intensifying climate change.¹ This rise in turbulence adds up to more injuries to passengers and crew, as well as costs for things like injury damages, aircraft maintenance, and fuel consumption.

SkyPath integration with Pilotbrief and Fusion

Not only does the partnership produce live, crowdsourced turbulence data, it offers airlines the tools they need for an impactful turbulence mitigation strategy. In 2023, SkyPath observed 1.4 billion turbulence reports, so integrating this data into existing EFB and dispatch solutions can equal significant results. The integration of this data set within the TWC suite of aviation products will allow airlines to quickly obtain the best situational awareness possible for efficient and decisive decision making.

Looking at five years of real-world air carrier data—over one million flights—clearly shows that data-powered solutions can reduce turbulence-related injuries to flight attendants by 40-50%, and mean cost savings of close to $10M per year from injury damages alone.²

Features for a smoother and safer journey

SkyPath’s real time data set matched with Fusion’s manage-by-exception workflow enables teams to focus on upcoming impacts to flights. Pilotbrief and Fusion put timely, accurate turbulence data into the tools pilots and dispatchers use daily. To be or not to be seated: they’ll get live notifications of upcoming turbulence, which makes them better equipped to plan and react in real-time, like turning on the fasten seatbelt sign in advance or navigating around turbulence.

Users can also view SkyPath turbulence reports inside a vertical profile, which makes navigating through turbulence at any stage of the ride simple, intuitive, and best of all, safe.

AI + machine learning = a new frontier for ride quality

SkyPath covers 100% of the globe with its AI-based turbulence forecast (“Nowcast”) which boasts an impressive 90% accuracy. It’s no doubt a game-changer, connecting real-time turbulence observations by the SkyPath iPad algorithm with meteorological parameters, and advanced machine learning to predict short-term turbulence for up to six hours. The combination of SkyPath’s data with TWC’s GRAF turbulence forecasting allows for a unified picture of turbulence risks associated with safe travel.

To learn more about SkyPath’s integrations with Pilotbrief and Fusion, register today for our joint webinar, July 11, 10 a.m. EST.

Garden variety or so called “pop-up” thunderstorms are common during the warm season and generally have limited impacts to airline operations. But there’s another kind of summer storm plaguing the airline industry that’s not so innocent: training thunderstorms. What exactly are these severe storms, what impact can they have on airline operations, and how can airline decision makers ensure they’re prepared? Read on.

What are training thunderstorms?

Training thunderstorms occur when a series of individual thunderstorm cells repeatedly propagate over the same geographical area. The overall collection of convective cells associated with training thunderstorms is also known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). While the term “MCS” can apply broadly to any cluster of thunderstorms, a training MCS can result in a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, leading to significant flash flooding. These unique and rather rare convective systems are most common during the summer months across the central United States, occurring most frequently during the late evening and overnight hours.

Thunderstorms erupting across Texas during a hot summer afternoon, causing numerous flight diversions.

Critical to the formation of training MCSs is the presence of a slow moving surface boundary. Commonly a warm front, this boundary is crucial in generating lift to initiate the development of thunderstorms. Once thunderstorms have become established, the slow movement of this boundary can enable several rounds of thunderstorms to traverse the same areas repeatedly.

Further enhancing the likelihood of training thunderstorms is the presence of a low level jet (LLJ). This strong belt of winds in the lower atmosphere aids in transporting the large quantities of atmospheric moisture needed to sustain multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Forecasting training thunderstorms

While certain large-scale atmospheric features can be forecasted with a relatively high degree of accuracy up to several days in advance, finer-scale atmospheric phenomena such as training thunderstorms are much more difficult to predict. In these more nuanced situations, our team of The Weather Company meteorologists leverage a suite of short-term, high-resolution forecast models to better assess atmospheric conditions. Supplementing this model data is our extensive experience forecasting past thunderstorm events, with pattern recognition serving as an invaluable tool in the accurate and timely prediction of disruptive thunderstorm events.

How training thunderstorms disrupt airline operations

As thunderstorms redevelop and repeatedly rumble overhead or in close proximity to an airline’s hub during peak arrival or departure times, the risk of significant operational disruption increases:

• Training thunderstorms over arrival fixes or the airport can lead to airborne holding and possible aircraft diversions when fuel gets low.
• Blocked departure corridors can lead to long delays on the ground as planes become stacked up nose to tail on taxiways while waiting to depart.
• Lightning over the airfield can trigger ramp closures for ground workers which can lead to suspension of aircraft boarding, deplaning, catering operations, baggage transport, and fueling.

All this leads to departure delays and possible gridlock as arriving flights wait for gates occupied by delayed departures. As diversions and delays compound, the risk of cancellations increases. Passengers are left stranded at the airport with little to do but post unfavorable comments on social media followed by negative headlines in the press. Local roadway flooding is also possible which may make getting to and from the airport challenging for passengers and employees. An airline caught by surprise may take days to recover in the aftermath of the worst events.

How The Weather Company helps airlines navigate training thunderstorms

The Weather Company meteorologists embedded within an airlines’ operations center strive to identify and communicate the risk of training thunderstorm events up to a day in advance. The goal is to give the airline ample lead time to develop an operational plan to best manage the event based on the potential start time and duration. A thunderstorm planning outlook is issued the day prior to open a dialogue with airlines’ decision makers. Subsequent forecast updates and tactical communication continue throughout the event until the risk has extinguished.

Summary

Although we as The Weather Company forecasters can’t control the weather, we do work diligently to alert airline decision makers to the potential of a training thunderstorm event. We work side-by-side with them throughout the event to provide the most accurate weather and help the airline weather the storm.

This post is part two of a two-part blog series dedicated to severe thunderstorm education. Read the first installment.

Part one of this series explained why thunderstorms happen during springtime – and what specific weather phenomena creates them. Building on this, let’s go deeper into thunderstorms and convection in general. We’ll also share how The Weather Company’s solutions can help aviation industry professionals like you make better decisions that keep your customers and crews safe.

How does The Weather Company help aviation clients navigate thunderstorms?

Enroute hazards

The Weather Company’s Enroute Hazards solution forecasts organized clusters or lines of storms and produces convection hazards.

Single-cell thunderstorms can be strong to severe and cause significant damage. But they don’t usually meet the spatial distance, or coverage requirement, to warrant a convective hazard (like FPG or SIGMET) to be drawn in the area. For single-cell storms, where Enroute Hazards may not highlight the area with the drawn hazards, pilots can turn to onboard radar to avoid convection.

Onboard radar also helps with developing convection where updrafts can create severe turbulence.

Terminal aerodrome forecasts

The Weather Company issues Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) on a global scale.

With certain TAFs, mainly large hubs, The Weather Company may include a TAF discussion where the forecaster writes about potentially strong or severe storms and, in some cases, may also mention possible threats (i.e., hail, tornado, etc.) with that type of storm.

More about convective hazards

All of the convective hazards generated by The Weather Company include an average base and max height. No aircraft should try to fly below our convective hazards. That’s why we use an average base level.

Our Flight Plan Guidance (FPGs) are usually SCT-BKN (scattered to broken) in coverage which represents between 35% and 50% of coverage.

Typically, these are a strong line or an area of thunderstorms that have well-defined breaks, but not significant coverage.

The Weather Company team does have the ability to draw SCT FPGs from 15% to 35% in the vicinity of a select number of hubs in the United States and in more sensitive or highly traveled U.S. regions, including BOS-ORD-MEM-ORF-BOS.

When it comes to significant meteorological hazards (SIGMETs), they are either BKN, which is 50% to 75% coverage, or solid storms with greater than 75% coverage. BKN coverage is virtually an unbroken line, small breaks are likely, or an area of robust thunderstorms with significant coverage.

SIGMETing this coverage of thunderstorms is our way of advising aviation clients to avoid this area.

A solid area of storms is where there are no breaks in a line of thunderstorms or a large cluster of thunderstorms with no breaks in convection (i.e. Mesoscale Convective System).

Are thunderstorms the biggest risks for aviators?

The greatest threat to aircraft isn’t lightning–aircraft are built to withstand lightning strikes –but rather severe turbulence, hail, and icing.

The convective hazards produced by The Weather Company–like FPGs and SIGMETs–include implied turbulence and icing. It’s generally suggested that aircraft avoid these areas. Each airline will need to follow its individual standard operating procedure on how to handle this.

Hail damage to aircraft, including the windshield, or encountering severe turbulence, means that the aircraft will be taken out of service for maintenance. This impacts time, cost, and potentially airline credibility.

What’s the latest frontier for the aviation industry? Space weather. 

The scientific data available on how space weather impacts avionics is still in development; the industry is currently at a similar level of understanding as with terrestrial weather back in the 1970s. 

That’s why The Weather Company’s Space Weather Task Force is dedicated to advancing this knowledge base. We work closely with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to help aviation professionals navigate its immediate (and currently recognized) effects on airline operations such as communication blackouts caused by sunspots, GPS malfunctions created by geomagnetic storms, or solar radiation exposure to passengers and crew.

Recently, we hosted an exclusive webinar to share how our aviation weather experts handle communication on space weather and its current impacts. We also discuss how The Weather Company is continually innovating and improving these communications.

Example of a visual from the updated space weather bulletins.

Check out the recording below to get more info about how we’re tackling space weather, one event at a time.

In this webinar, you’ll discover:

• A refresher on space weather’s impact
• The way we obtain space weather data from SWPC
• How we communicate space weather events to airlines
• Our plans for innovating in this field
• A helpful Q & A session with attendees

If your airline experiences any effect of space weather, let us know. Your input may help revolutionize the understanding of this phenomena – for your friends at The Weather Company, SWPC, and the world at large.

Ready to get insights? Watch the webinar now.

This post is part one of a two-part blog series dedicated to severe thunderstorm and convection weather education. Read part 2 here.

Picture this: it’s late March. Grass is greener. Flowers are budding. The temperature is picking up. The weather is finally calming down, and you let out a sigh of relief.

Then it happens. Strong gusts of wind, bouts of hail, and even tornadoes. Looks like you’re not out of the woods yet.

That’s because spring isn’t just a time of renewal. It’s also the time when severe weather starts to show its true power. And for meteorologists, it’s the most exciting season to witness–especially because of severe thunderstorms.

What causes severe thunderstorms during spring in the US?

The answer has to do with the rise in temperatures as the northern hemisphere increases its angle to the sun. This causes longer daylight hours. But there are many more variables needed to create severe thunderstorms. These include:

• Available moisture
• An unstable atmosphere
• A lifting mechanism
• Wind shear

How these phenomena create severe thunderstorms

During the spring, the Polar Jet is still very active and is associated as a boundary with cold Canadian air on its northern side. This cold air mass comes down from Canada and interacts with the warm, moist air that moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This available moisture is crucial in the development of severe thunderstorms.

What’s more, the Great Central Plains provides an excellent backdrop, or “battle zone” if you will, for these two air masses. When spring arrives, the upper atmosphere is relatively cool–even cold. And the lower levels of the atmosphere get warmer thanks to the longer days.

This is the catalyst for the second ingredient in severe thunderstorm development: an unstable atmosphere. Meanwhile, the Polar Jet still dips down into the central US, creating strong mid- and upper-level disturbances in the atmosphere.

These disturbances support frontal zones and frontal waves which are located between the “battle zone” of two air masses located on or near the surface (in this case, the Great Plains.) And thus, we have our third ingredient for severe weather: a lifting mechanism.

So what about the last ingredient: wind shear? 

Forms of wind shear

1. Vertical wind shear: This type enhances the thunderstorm updrafts, allowing the storm to continue to get stronger and stronger.
2. Lower-level directional wind shear: Thunderstorms need this kind of wind shear to occur in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which helps the updrafts to start rotating.

When all these ingredients are in play, convection happens. And weather forecasters feel the hype. They know severe springtime thunderstorms are coming up–and they’re in for quite a show.

Wrapping up

While this isn’t a comprehensive list of severe weather requirements, I hope I gave you a quick and easy resource to understand the basics of why spring is a likely time for severe weather thunderstorms.

So now, why not go outside and enjoy the possibilities spring has to offer? Just keep in mind that there are bigger forces that can bring you a pretty entertaining light show.

Want to know more about how The Weather Company helps the aviation industry operate amid thunderstorms? Check out part two of this blog post series.